It's about to get bumpy
Says economist and polymath, Tyler Cowen
For my entire life, and a bit more, there have been two essential features of the basic landscape:
1. American hegemony over much of the world, and relative physical safety for Americans.
2. An absence of truly radical technological change.
Unless you are very old, old enough to have taken in some of WWII, or were drafted into Korea or Vietnam, probably those features describe your entire life as well.
In other words, virtually all of us have been living in a bubble “outside of history.”
Now, circa 2023, at least one of those assumptions is going to unravel, namely #2. AI represents a truly major, transformational technological advance. Biomedicine might too, but for this post I’ll stick to the AI topic, as I wish to consider existential risk.
#1 might unravel soon as well, depending how Ukraine and Taiwan fare. It is fair to say we don’t know, nonetheless #1 also is under increasing strain.
Hardly anyone you know, including yourself, is prepared to live in actual “moving” history. It will panic many of us, disorient the rest of us, and cause great upheavals in our fortunes, both good and bad. In my view the good will considerably outweigh the bad (at least from losing #2, not #1), but I do understand that the absolute quantity of the bad disruptions will be high.
One of the things that does concern me is the current iteration rate in artificial intelligence. The pace is staggering, and I think our comprehension will be a lagging indicator of ability. Look at January-March!
I use GPT-4 every day now. After finishing Survivor season 15 last night, I was curious about strategy. Here’s the output:
Study the game: Watch past seasons of Survivor to understand the format, twists, and strategies used by successful players. Take notes on key moves, alliances, and social dynamics.
Improve physical fitness: Work on your endurance, strength, agility, and swimming skills. Exercise regularly, incorporating both cardio and strength training. This will help you excel in challenges and avoid being seen as a physical liability.
Develop a strong social game: Survivor is ultimately a social game. Practice active listening, empathy, and diplomacy in your daily life to build strong relationships. Learn to read people and adapt your communication style based on their needs.
Learn outdoor survival skills: Take wilderness survival courses or study resources like books and videos on topics such as fire-making, shelter-building, and water purification. This knowledge will be invaluable on the island.
Study puzzles and mental challenges: Many Survivor challenges involve puzzles or memory tasks. Familiarize yourself with different types of puzzles and practice solving them quickly.
Craft a versatile strategy: Develop a strategy that can adapt to changing circumstances. Be prepared to form and break alliances as necessary, always keeping your endgame in mind. Consider how you will handle blindsides, hidden immunity idols, and twists.
Work on your public speaking skills: At the end of the game, you'll need to convince the jury to vote for you. Develop your public speaking skills to communicate your game strategy, accomplishments, and personal growth effectively.
Be adaptable and resilient: Prepare yourself mentally for the challenges of Survivor. Develop coping mechanisms for stress, hunger, and sleep deprivation. Flexibility and resilience will be key to your success.
Practice lying and deception: While honesty is important, strategic deception can be crucial in Survivor. Learn to lie convincingly, but use this skill sparingly to avoid damaging your credibility.
Master the art of negotiation: Develop your negotiation skills to make deals and influence others to work with you. This will help you navigate the game's complexities and further your strategic agenda.
Create a compelling personal narrative: Develop a story that demonstrates why you deserve to win Survivor. Show personal growth, strong gameplay, and adaptability to appeal to the jury's emotions and intellect.
Pre-game networking (if applicable): If you know the cast in advance, try to form pre-game alliances or gather information on your fellow contestants. This can give you a head start in the game.
Prepare for the audition and casting process: Craft a memorable audition tape that showcases your personality, physical fitness, and strategic mindset. Practice for interviews with casting directors to articulate why you'd be a compelling and entertaining contestant.
Finally, remember that even the best-laid plans can go awry. Embrace the unpredictability.
Apropos.